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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1241602 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 15.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0300 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 59.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 75SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 59.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 58.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.2N 61.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.9N 64.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N 66.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.0N 68.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 25.6N 69.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 28.9N 70.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 190SW 170NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 59.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN