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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1241631 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 16.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 61.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 50SE 40SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 135SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 61.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.3N 63.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.1N 65.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.1N 67.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.3N 68.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.6N 69.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 26.2N 70.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 29.9N 70.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 170SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 34.7N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 61.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI