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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1241762 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 17.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 66.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 110SE 70SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 180SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 66.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.3N 67.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.8N 70.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.2N 71.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.9N 72.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 33.3N 70.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 38.6N 63.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...150NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 250SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 66.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI