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| #1241801 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 17.Aug.2025) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 200 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025 ...ERIN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 68.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeast Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeast Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 68.0 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some increase in size and strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall today across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are expected across Puerto Rico through Monday, as well as the Turks and Caicos, and the eastern Bahamas through San Salvador Island through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeast Bahamas late tonight and Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
