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| #1241825 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 17.Aug.2025) TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025 Erin continues to have a well-organized cloud pattern with numerous convective banding features and strong upper-level outflow. Satellite data indicate numerous lightning flashes in these cloud bands. The intensity estimate is held at 110 kt for this advisory, which is somewhat below the Dvorak values, but close to the estimate based on the most recent aerial reconnaissance mission. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Erin in a few hours to provide an update on the strength of the hurricane. The system has been moving just a little to the right of the track seen earlier today, and the initial motion estimate is 295/11 kt. There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Erin is expected to gradually turn northward in a couple of days while moving through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, i.e. between two subtropical high cells. The track guidance is basically unchanged from earlier today, so the new official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. This remains close to the dynamical model consensus TVCN and is is also similar to the latest FSU Superensemble guidance. Erin exhibited an eyewall replacement earlier today, with the eye diameter increasing from 5-10 n mi to around 40 n mi. If the replacement cycle completes, there should be a contraction of the eyewall by tonight. This would likely result in another intensification episode. The official forecast is consistent with this expectation and is near the high side of the model guidance. Notwithstanding, Erin should remain in conducive environmental conditions and remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week. Erin has been growing in size, and that trend is likely to continue over the next few days. The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bands of heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through tonight, but are expected to diminish by Monday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and in the southeast Bahamas tonight and Monday. 3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 21.7N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 22.8N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 24.0N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 25.4N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 27.1N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 31.2N 72.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 35.3N 69.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 40.3N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
