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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1242084 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 19.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 72.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....420NE 300SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 72.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 72.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.3N 73.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 34.9N 71.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.8N 68.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...280NE 280SE 230SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 64.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
50 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...320NE 300SE 250SW 260NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...340NE 320SE 250SW 260NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 72.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH