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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1242282 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 21.Aug.2025)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 72.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......140NE 160SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......220NE 280SE 200SW 200NW.
4 M SEAS....480NE 420SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 72.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.8N 70.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 320SE 230SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.8N 66.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 250SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.6N 62.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...330NE 350SE 260SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.4N 56.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 190SE 160SW 130NW.
34 KT...330NE 350SE 270SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.6N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 70NW.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 170SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 350SE 320SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 46.7N 40.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 140SE 180SW 80NW.
34 KT...290NE 420SE 410SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 53.0N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 160SE 140SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 380SE 450SW 350NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 56.8N 21.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 340SE 480SW 280NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 72.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG