|
Show Selection: |
| #1242628 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 23.Aug.2025) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025 The trough of low pressure (AL90) located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda has become better organized today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined center during the past couple of hours, with a central pressure of about 1010 mb. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt, based on earlier scatterometer data which had a few believable tropical-storm-force wind vectors, and a Dvorak classification of 35 kt from TAFB. The initial motion is north or 010/13 kt. A north-northeastward motion is anticipated during the next couple of days with a slow increase in forward speed due to Fernand moving around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The storm will likely accelerate to the northeast thereafter as the system gets caught up in faster mid-latitude flow, well to the southeast of Newfoundland. The global models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance, closest to the HFIP Corrected- Consensus Model (HCCA). Fernand has about 48 hours over warm waters within generally light shear to intensify. There is a fair bit of mid-level dry air, however, which could hinder any rapid strengthening, so the intensity forecast will just show a more gradual increase in winds. All of the models peak the system as an upper-end tropical storm or category 1 hurricane, and the NHC forecast is just shy of a hurricane as a peak. After Monday, Fernand should weaken due to the influences of cooler waters and increasing shear, and the storm will likely become post-tropical in 3-4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 27.2N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 31.4N 60.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 35.8N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 41.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
