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| #1242658 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 23.Aug.2025) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025 Fernand is still trying to become better organized this evening. A recent scatterometer pass around 0052 UTC depicted a peak wind speed around 31 kt, southeast of the center. Latest satellite images show there has been a recent burst in the last few hours over the low-level center, although some of the outer rain bands have diminished. Subjective and objective intensity estimates remain around 35-40 kt. Using a blend of the estimates and recent satellite trends, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The lastest motion is north-northeast at 015/14. Fernand is being steered around the western edge of the subtropical ridge, which will cause the storm to move north-northeastward during the next few days. The system will then turn more northeastward within the flow between the ridge and an approaching trough, and accelerate over the north Atlantic. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement and the latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, near the corrected-consensus HCCA. Fernand is within a favorable environment for intensification, with warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear. However, models depict some mid-level dry air near it, which may hinder the strengthening rate and structure. The intensity guidance has come down slightly this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast follows those trends with a peak intensity now at 55 kt, on the higher end of the guidance envelope. The storm should begin to weaken as SSTs cool and wind shear increases by day 3, and the system will likely become post-tropical by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 28.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 30.6N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 32.9N 59.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 35.0N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 37.4N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 40.0N 55.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 43.0N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 49.0N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly |
