|
Show Selection: |
| #1242813 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 25.Aug.2025) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 Fernand continues to produce a concentrated area of convection near and to the south of the center, although recent AMSR2 and GMI microwave overpasses show some separation between the center and the convection. There are also ragged outer convective bands in the northeastern semicircle. The various satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and they have not changed much during the past 6 h. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The initial motion remains north-northeast or 025/10 kt. Fernand is being steered around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and is moving into the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. A general north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some increase in forward speed during the remainder of the cyclone`s life. The latest track guidance has shifted a little to the left or northwest, and the new forecast track thus lies a little to the left of the previous forecast. Overall, the new forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus. Fernand is almost out of time to strengthen. It is approaching an area of increasing shear, and after 12 h sea surface temperatures decrease along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast will show a little more strengthening today, followed by a weakening trend as Fernand moves into the less favorable environment. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 48 h over cold water, and it is now forecast to degenerate to a trough by 60 h in agreement with the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 33.7N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 35.3N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 40.3N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 43.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
