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| #1242869 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 25.Aug.2025) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 The center of Fernand has become exposed this afternoon with bursting convection continuing well south of the center. The initial intensity will remain 50 kt on this package per continuity from earlier scatterometer winds, but if convection doesn`t redevelop soon near the center, this is probably a generous estimate. Weakening should begin soon regardless with increasing shear and cooler waters in the path of the storm. Fernand is forecast to become post-tropical early on Wednesday due to a lack of convection, but it wouldn`t be surprising if that transition happened sooner. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near the model consensus. The initial motion is north-northeast or 030/12 kt. A general north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some increase in speed during the rest of Fernand`s life due to steering from the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude trough. Models are trending toward a slower and rightward solution, suggesting a weaker storm will not feel the approaching mid-latitude trough as much. The new official forecast is shifted south of the previous one, closer to the Google Deep Mind model, which has had a very good performance so far for this cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 35.3N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 36.8N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 38.7N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 40.5N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 27/1800Z 43.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
