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| #1242981 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 26.Aug.2025) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 As mentioned this morning, there was a possibility of deep convection redeveloping near Fernand`s center, and that indeed has happened. Fernand has therefore maintained tropical cyclone status, and based on earlier ASCAT data which showed wind of 30-35 kt, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is northeastward, or 045/10 kt. An acceleration toward the east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days as Fernand becomes more fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow. In the short term, Fernand will be moving over a relative warm eddy of the Gulf Stream, while also remaining in an environment of low shear. Based on the latest GFS and ECMWF fields, as well as the HCCA guidance, some slight strengthening appears possible during the next day or so. This is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. Post-tropical transition is predicted by 36 hours, if not sooner, when the cyclone should finally struggle to maintain convection over colder waters. The post-tropical cyclone may be able to maintain its integrity through 48 hours, so an additional forecast point was added to the official forecast at that time. The GFS and ECWMF are in very good agreement that the low should open up into a trough by 60 hours (Thursday night). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 38.1N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 38.8N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 40.1N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 41.8N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/1800Z 43.7N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
