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| #1243084 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 27.Aug.2025) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025 Fernand`s interaction with a nearby upper-level trough has caused the cloud pattern to look more like an extratropical cyclone, with a broad cirrus shield northeast of the center and some leftover shallow-topped convection in a band within the eastern semicircle. Still, the system remains non frontal and is holding onto tropical cyclone status. Maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt based on ASCAT-C data from around 10 am this morning. The initial motion is now faster toward the northeast, or 070 degrees at 13 kt. Additional acceleration toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next day or so with Fernand now well embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow. The storm is now passing across the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and sea surface temperatures beneath the circulation should be down to about 23 degrees Celsius in 12 hours. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images suggest that convection should continue to wane over these colder waters, and Fernand is expected to become post-tropical by early Thursday. Despite the transition, Fernand is forecast to maintain gale-force winds, even after it opens up into a trough and dissipates by Thursday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 39.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 40.6N 44.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 28/1800Z 42.7N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
