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| #1243109 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 27.Aug.2025) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025 The system is producing minimal shower activity at this time, with only some shallow- to mid-level topped convection and some isolated deeper cells in a band over the eastern semicircle. In fact, the cyclone lacks enough convection to be classified by the Dvorak technique. Unless significant shower and thunderstorm activity redevelops in the circulation, which seems unlikely due to cooler ocean waters, Fernand will become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. In spite of its unimpressive cloud appearance, recent ASCAT-C scatterometer measurements showed peak surface winds of around 45 kt over the southern part of Fernand`s circulation. Some slight spin-down is likely during the next 24 hours, but the system is expected to maintain gale-force winds even after it opens up into a trough by Thursday night or early Friday. Fernand is accelerating east-northeastward with the motion now around 060/16 kt. The cyclone should continue to move faster in about the same direction, within the mid-latitude west-southwesterly flow ahead of a short-wave trough, until post-tropical transition. The official forecast is very close to the dynamical track model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 40.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 41.7N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 29/0000Z 43.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
