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| #1245258 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 18.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025 Gabrielle continues to struggle and consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches of deep convection over the northeast and southeast quadrants of the storm. The poor structure is due to westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of dry air that is continuously entraining into the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but this value is well above the latest satellite intensity estimates. The atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a couple more days, so it seems likely that Gabrielle will either hold steady or lose strength during that time. However, the models suggest that the storm could move into more conducive conditions late in the weekend and early next week, which should cause Gabrielle to become more symmetric and strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope for the first 3 days, but lies closer to the high end of the guidance at days 4 and 5. Gabrielle has been moving erratically due to the storm reorganizing over the past 12 to 24 hours, but smoothing through the fixes yields a west-northwestward motion at 13 kt. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next few days as the storm continues to be primarily steered by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the north or northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one from 12 to 72 h, but it has been shifted a little to the right at days 4 and 5 to be in better agreement with the latest guidance. Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 20.0N 50.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 20.8N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 21.8N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 22.8N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 24.0N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 26.8N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 30.2N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 34.4N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
