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Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
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| #1245279 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 18.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025 Gabrielle continues to struggle this morning as a pronounced swirl of low-level clouds is unable to muster up much in the way of deep convection near its center. Gabrielle`s poor structure is due to ongoing westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of dry air entrainment that is infiltrating its circulation. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer data of at least 40 kt, but this value remains above the latest satellite intensity estimates. Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a couple more days, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current intensity or weaken during that time. It is even possible it could decay into a non-convective post-tropical low for a time. Assuming it survives, most guidance suggests that the storm will move into more conducive conditions that persist into early next week, allowing Gabrielle to organize and strengthen as it tracks north to northeastward. The NHC intensity forecast is near the low end of the guidance envelope for the first 3 days, but lies closer to the middle of the guidance at days 4 and 5. Gabrielle`s more erratic track over the past 24-48 hours has now smoothed out over the past 12-24 hours with a west-northwestward motion at 13 kt. This west-northwest to northwest motion should persist over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the north or northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal system approaches from the west. The NHC track forecast was adjusted just west of track given the guidance`s more westerly consensus of a weaker system inside the next 48 hours. Gabrielle`s forward motion is a little faster as well, especially between hours 48-120 when it should accelerate thanks to increased steering flow on the western side of the Atlantic ridge. Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 20.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 21.1N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 22.1N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 24.4N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 25.9N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 27.7N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 31.4N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 36.5N 56.2W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Mullinax/Blake |
