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Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
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| #1245425 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 19.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 Gabrielle still has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm. Before sunset, the low-level center was just west of the deep convection and recent bursts have partially obscured it now. A GPM microwave pass showed a couple bands curving around the eastern semicircle of the storm. Satellite Dvorak estimates have remained steady since the previous advisory and the intensity is held at 45 kt, closest to the TAFB classification of T3.0/45-kt. The storm is moving northwestward at 10 kt as it is steered by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. In about a day, Gabrielle will turn to the north-northwest and the north while it moves between the western periphery of the ridge and a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The storm should turn more towards the northeast and accelerate in the mid-latitude westerlies by early next week. The track guidance has a noticeably slower forward motion this cycle and by the end of the forecast period, is farther south. Overall, the latest NHC track forecast is slower than the previous prediction. It is also farther east for the first 48 hours, largely due to the initial position being farther north than expected. Interest in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle`s progress since there is a roughly 20 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring on Bermuda. Gabrielle is expected to gradually strengthen as the environmental conditions become more conducive during the next few days. The system should reach hurricane strength by Sunday and is forecast to peak at 90 kt at 72 h. This forecast is closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. It should be noted that several of the hurricane regional models still predict that Gabrielle could reach major hurricane strength by early next week. At the end of the forecast period, extratropical transition could be underway but with the southward adjustment to the track forecast, the official forecast does not explicitly call for it yet. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda should monitor Gabrielle`s forecasts since it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda soon and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 23.6N 57.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 26.3N 59.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 28.0N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 30.0N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 34.5N 58.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 38.9N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 42.7N 35.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
