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| #1245715 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 22.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025 Gabrielle has continued to become better organized this afternoon, with very cold cloud tops in the eyewall and a warm eye. Data from both NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirm satellite estimates that Gabrielle is a category 4 hurricane, with peak 700-mb winds of 129 kt in the eastern quadrant a few hours ago. Additionally, tail-Doppler radar data showed maximum 0.5 km winds of 135-140 kt on the last pass, and the double eyewall structure has consolidated into a single eyewall again. These data supported an intensity of at least 115 kt at 18Z, and with the slight improvement on satellite since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 120 kt. The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 10 kt. There are no important changes to report to the track forecast, with the subtropical ridge providing a seemingly reliable steering for the next several days. Gabrielle is forecast to turn northeastward overnight and then move at a more rapid pace to the east-northeast during the next few days due to stronger mid-latitude flow. The new forecast remains on the faster side of the guidance, closer to the Google DeepMind and GFS model. Extratropical transition is expected late on Friday while the system is in the vicinity of the Azores. Little significant intensity change with Gabrielle is expected as the cyclone begins to move into a less conducive environment, though the overnight diurnal convective max should help the hurricane maintain its strength in the short term. A combination of cooler waters and increasing shear should cause Gabrielle to start to weaken by late tomorrow. While SSTs drop off notably by midweek, an upper-level trough is likely to provide extra divergence aloft, keeping the hurricane stronger than other environmental conditions might suggest. The new NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one, showing a gradual weakening during the long-range forecast and near the model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind, rainfall, and wave impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 31.7N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 32.8N 60.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 35.7N 47.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 36.3N 40.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 37.7N 34.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 42.8N 22.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1800Z 44.5N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake |
