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Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
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| #1245842 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 23.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 23 2025 Gabrielle`s eye became a little less distinct over the past several hours, but the system continues to produce very cold-topped deep convection to near -70 deg C. Convective banding features remain fairly well defined, although upper-level outflow is becoming a little restricted over the western portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity estimate is reduced just slightly to 110 kt, which is a blend of the latest CI and final Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane continues to pick up forward speed and the motion is now around 065/19 kt. The basic steering scenario remains about the same as in the previous advisories. Over the next few days, Gabrielle should move between the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a large mid-latitude trough over the north Atlantic. This motion should take the system near or over the Azores in about 60 hours. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and close to the corrected consensus model guidance. Drier air, increasing vertical wind shear, and cooling ocean waters should cause the system to steadily weaken during the next several days. The only offsetting factor might be baroclinic interactions with the nearby trough which could help Gabrielle maintain some of its intensity while it moves near or through the Azores. The official intensity forecast is just slightly above the latest LGEM guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as a hurricane. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the islands of the Azores, and interests there should closely monitor Gabrielle`s progress as hurricane conditions are possible later this week. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 35.1N 54.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 36.1N 44.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 36.9N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 38.4N 31.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 40.1N 26.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 41.5N 20.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/0000Z 41.5N 13.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/0000Z 39.5N 9.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
