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Atlantic is mostly quiet again for now
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| #1245872 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 24.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 AM AST Wed Sep 24 2025 Gabrielle continues to slowly weaken. The eye is no longer apparent in conventional satellite imagery, and the outflow continues to be restricted on the western side due to westerly vertical shear. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 90-105 kt range and have decreased a little during the past 6 h. Based on these, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100 kt. The initial motion is now 075/22 kt. For the next three days or so, Gabrielle should continue east-northeastward with some increase in forward speed, with the cyclone moving through or near the Azores in about 48 h. After three days, the cyclone is expected to slow its forward speed and turn southeastward as it is steered by a broad deep-layer trough over western Europe. Since there are only minor changes in the track guidance since the last advisory, the new forecast track is almost identical to the previous track through 72 h, and it is nudged a little south of the previous track after that time. Gabrielle should continue to weaken due to increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. However, the ECMWF and the GFS are in good agreement that the cyclone should have 75-80 kt winds in the southwestern quadrant as it approaches and moves through the Azores. These forecast winds are likely due to a baroclinic sting jet as Gabrielle interacts with an upper-level trough and undergoes extratropical transition. After that transition is complete in about 60 h, the global models forecast the cyclone to steadily weaken over the northeastern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast has some changes from the previous advisory, with the first 24 h following the intensity consensus and the subsequent forecast periods following a blend of the ECMWF and GFS wind forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as a hurricane. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for all of the islands of the Azores, and hurricane conditions are likely Thursday night and Friday. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 35.6N 51.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 35.9N 47.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 36.5N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 37.6N 34.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 39.1N 28.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 40.7N 22.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0600Z 41.2N 18.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/0600Z 40.3N 12.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/0600Z 38.0N 9.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
