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| #1245894 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 24.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 24 2025 Gabrielle continues to show signs of gradual weakening. The convective pattern of the hurricane has become less symmetric, with restricted outflow on the western side of the system. Cold convective cloud tops obscure the center of the hurricane, and no eye feature is apparent in conventional satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 85-97 kt, and the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt. Gabrielle is moving east-northeastward (075/22 kt) while embedded within westerly mid-latitude flow. The hurricane is expected to accelerate eastward to east-northeastward during the next couple of days, passing near or over the Azores Thursday night into Friday. By the weekend, Gabrielle is forecast to slow down and turn eastward and then southeastward over the eastern Atlantic. There are some forward speed differences in the track guidance, with the GFS notably faster than the rest of the models through much of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly faster in line with the latest multi-model consensus aids, but otherwise is similar to the previous forecast. The track uncertainty increases by day 5, with some models (GFS, Google DeepMind) showing the system inland over Portugal while others (ECMWF, UKMET) keep the low offshore. Gabrielle will encounter increasing westerly shear and cooler waters during the next couple of days, so some weakening is expected. However, as Gabrielle begins to interact with an upper trough over the northern Atlantic and starts extratropical transition, the GFS and ECMWF depict a warm seclusion low structure with a band of hurricane-force winds wrapping around the western side of the circulation. This could result in significant wind impacts to the Azores, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for those islands. The NHC intensity and radii forecasts lean more heavily on the global model wind fields through the first 48 h, as these better capture the anticipated structural changes of the cyclone. Once Gabrielle becomes fully extratropical, the system should weaken more rapidly within a dry mid-level environment over cooler waters. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as a hurricane. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of the islands of the Azores, and hurricane conditions are likely Thursday night and Friday. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores even after the center passes. 2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days, and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 36.0N 48.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 36.3N 44.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 36.9N 37.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 38.3N 30.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 40.0N 25.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0000Z 40.9N 20.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1200Z 40.9N 16.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/1200Z 39.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/1200Z 37.5N 8.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
