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| #1245924 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 24.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025 The satellite presentation of Gabrielle indicates the hurricane is contending with increasing westerly shear. Recent AMSR2 89 GHz and 37 GHz passive microwave images reveal the vortex is tilted with height, and the western side of the inner core has been eroded. The overall cloud pattern has taken an oblong shape this afternoon. The satellite intensity estimates have gradually decreased today, and the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. This lies in between the latest UW-CIMSS objective estimates and 18 UTC final-T Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane is moving quickly to the east (080/24 kt) within zonal mid-latitude flow. This eastward to east-northeastward motion should continue for the next day or two as Gabrielle passes near or over the Azores late Thursday into early Friday. The track models are tightly clustered for this portion of the forecast, although the guidance consensus is once again faster than the previous cycle. The NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. By the weekend, Gabrielle is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east and southeast while passing over the eastern Atlantic. There was an overall northward shift of the guidance envelope from 72-120 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC forecast. As Gabrielle moves over cooler waters within a highly-sheared environment, the hurricane is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics while interacting with an upper-level trough. The GFS and ECMWF suggest the resulting warm seclusion low structure could lead to the formation of a sting jet feature, with a band of hurricane-force winds wrapping around the back side of the system around the time it moves over the Azores. Since the global models tend to handle these situations well, the NHC forecast closely follows the GFS and ECMWF guidance during this part of the forecast. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Azores, and portions of the islands are likely to experience significant wind and storm surge impacts. Gabrielle should complete its extratropical transition in 36-48 h, and afterwards more significant weakening is forecast as the post-tropical low becomes vertically stacked and fills over the eastern Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday as a hurricane. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of the islands of the Azores, and hurricane conditions are likely Thursday night into Friday. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores even after the center passes. 2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days, and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 36.0N 45.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 36.4N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 37.5N 33.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 39.1N 27.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 40.5N 22.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0600Z 41.1N 17.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1800Z 40.7N 13.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/1800Z 38.0N 7.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/1800Z 36.0N 6.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
