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| #1245954 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 PM 24.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 300 AM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025 Gabrielle has weakened during the last several hours, with the low-level center on the eastern edge of the central dense overcast. A recent scatterometer pass indicated maximum winds of 60-65 kt, and after assuming some underestimation due to the instrument resolution, the current intensity is set to 75 kt. This is also consistent with the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. The hurricane is moving very quickly to the east (085/27 kt) within zonal mid-latitude flow. This eastward to east-northeastward motion should continue for the next day or two as Gabrielle passes near or over the Azores late today into early Friday. The only notable change to the track forecast is a southward adjustment, but that`s mostly due to the center being more accurately located by the scatterometer data. By the weekend, Gabrielle is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east and southeast while passing over the eastern Atlantic, in the general direction of Portugal. Gabrielle could lose a bit more strength in the short term due to persistent shear and cooler waters. However, it is also forecast to continue to interact with an upper-level trough, which is likely to cause a warm seclusion low structure and the formation of a sting jet feature. This should result in re-strengthening, with a band of hurricane-force winds wrapping around the back side of the system around the time it moves over the Azores. The only significant change to the last intensity forecast was a short-term weakening, followed by a re-strengthening, consistent with the latest ECMWF/GFS solutions. Gabrielle should complete its extratropical transition in just after 36 h, and afterwards more significant weakening is forecast as the post-tropical low fills over the far eastern Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late today as a hurricane. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of the islands of the Azores, and hurricane conditions are likely tonight into Friday. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores even after the center passes. 2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days, and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 36.0N 42.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 36.5N 37.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 37.9N 30.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 39.5N 24.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 40.5N 19.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/1200Z 40.5N 14.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0000Z 39.7N 10.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/0000Z 36.8N 7.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
