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| #1246009 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 25.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 300 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025 The satellite presentation of Gabrielle is disheveled this morning. Deep convection has mostly collapsed, and the coldest cloud tops are displaced well to the east of the low-level center by strong westerly shear. Recent ASCAT data show the wind field is asymmetric, with the strongest winds confined to the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. The strongest winds from the instrument were around 50 kt, but known resolution limitations suggest this is likely not reflective of Gabrielle`s peak intensity. Based on this data and a blend of the latest satellite estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt. Gabrielle is moving quickly eastward (080/28 kt) toward the Azores within mid-latitude westerly flow. The center of Gabrielle is expected to pass near or over the Azores late today into early Friday. Then, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate and turn toward the southeast as it moves around the northeastern portion of an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. This motion takes the center near or over the coast of Portugal by day 3. Since microwave and scatterometer data indicated the center was slightly south of previous estimates, the NHC track forecast has been nudged southward during the first 24 h. Then, the forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous one, generally following the multi-model consensus. The cooler waters and strong shear environment suggest that Gabrielle is unlikely to regain tropical characteristics, and it is possible that Gabrielle transitions to a powerful post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. The recent scatterometer winds show a front nearing the northern portion of Gabrielle`s circulation, in association with an upper-level trough over the northern Atlantic. The global models indicate baroclinic interaction with this feature should cause Gabrielle to have hurricane-force winds when it passes over the Azores tonight or early Friday. Although the NHC intensity prediction has been adjusted downward this cycle, the 12-h forecast still shows Gabrielle at hurricane strength near the Azores. Afterward, the updated forecast shows more rapid weakening of the extratropical cyclone over the far eastern Atlantic. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the Azores. The NHC will continue to issue advisories on Gabrielle as long as these land-based warnings are in place, regardless of the system`s status as a tropical or post-tropical cyclone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is expected to bring hurricane conditions to the islands of the Azores tonight into early Friday. Significant hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores even after the center passes. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding across the terrain of the central Azores tonight through Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 36.7N 35.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 37.7N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 39.3N 24.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 40.4N 19.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z 40.5N 14.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/0000Z 39.6N 11.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1200Z 37.9N 8.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/1200Z 35.5N 7.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
