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| #1246010 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 25.Sep.2025) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 25 2025 Deep convection has been increasing near and to the east of the center of Humberto during the past several hours, but the storm remains asymmetric due to the effects of wind shear and dry air entertainment. The initial intensity is increased a little to 45 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite estimates. The tropical storm is expected to continue to battle shear and dry air associated with a nearby mid- to upper-level trough for another day or so. However, by the weekend, the models show the upper-level wind pattern becoming notably more favorable for strengthening. Based on the current trends and expected conducive conditions, the NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward and shows Humberto becoming a hurricane in a day or so and then rapidly strengthening to a major hurricane over the weekend. This prediction is roughly in line with the latest HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Humberto is currently embedded in weak steering currents on the south side of a narrow and weak subtropical high over the central Atlantic. This pattern should keep the storm moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest during the next day or two. After that time, Humberto is expected to become primarily steered by a much stronger high over the western Atlantic, which should cause the storm to speed up. The models have trended south and west this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in those directions. This forecast keeps Humberto over the open central and western subtropical Atlantic during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 21.4N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 21.8N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 22.1N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 22.4N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.8N 60.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 23.4N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 24.2N 64.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 27.0N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 30.7N 69.7W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
