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| #1246072 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 25.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025 A patch of deep convection has redeveloped well to the northeast of Gabrielle`s center, most likely along an occluded frontal boundary that is forming in the storm`s immediate vicinity. A 2330 UTC ASCAT pass showed winds as high as 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant-- slightly lower than the ASCAT pass from 12 hours ago--and therefore the current intensity is estimated to be 55 kt. Strong winds began spreading across the central Azores a few hours ago, with hurricane-force gusts being reported at some elevated sites on those islands. Strong winds are expected to spread to the southeastern Azores within the next couple of hours. The current motion is east-northeastward, or 070 degrees at 25 kt. Gabrielle`s center is forecast to move across the Azores over the next several hours and then continue on a more-or-less eastward track but at a slower speed for the next couple of days while approaching the coast of Portugal. An even slower southeastward to southward motion is expected in 3 to 4 days while the low decays near southern Portugal and northern Morocco. Gabrielle could re-intensify slightly today until extratropical transition is completed, with the strongest winds shifting from the southeastern quadrant to the northwestern quadrant. A gradual decrease in winds is expected after 24 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECWMF solutions. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is expected to produce tropical storm conditions, with gusts to hurricane force, across the central and southeastern Azores this morning, with the strongest winds occurring at higher elevations. 2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding across the terrain of the central Azores through this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 37.8N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/1200Z 39.0N 24.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 27/0000Z 40.0N 19.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/1200Z 40.2N 14.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0000Z 39.3N 11.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/1200Z 37.5N 8.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0000Z 36.1N 7.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0000Z 34.2N 7.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
