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| #1246098 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 26.Sep.2025) TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 900 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025 Gabrielle continues to produce a patch of convection to the northeast of the center, which is most likely along a frontal boundary in this area. The center is currently moving through the central Azores where tropical-storm conditions and wind gusts to hurricane-force have been reported. In addition, sustained hurricane-force winds have been reported in the elevated mountainous areas of Terceira and Sao Miguel Islands. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. While the center has moved a little to the left of the previous track during the past few hours, the overall motion remains east-northeastward or 070/25 kt. Gabrielle should continue east-northeastward for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed, and this motion should bring the center away from the Azores today. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and southeastward as it approaches the coast of Portugal. This should be followed by an even slower southeastward to southward motion while Gabrielle decays and eventually dissipates near southern Portugal and northern Morocco. The new forecast track is shifted a bit to the north of the previous track based mainly on the more northerly initial position. Gabrielle is almost finished its extratropical transition, with satellite imagery indicating a cold front forming to the southeast and south of the center in addition to the frontal boundary to the north. The global models suggest little change in strength for the next 24 h, followed by a gradual weakening. The new intensity forecast is based mainly on a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models, and it now calls for the system to dissipate between 72-96 h. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended. This should occur sometime later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is expected to produce tropical storm conditions, with gusts to hurricane force, across the central and southeastern Azores this morning, with hurricane-force winds possible at higher elevations. 2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. 3. Any flooding caused by Gabrielle across the terrain of the central Azores should subside today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 39.1N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/1800Z 40.1N 21.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 27/0600Z 40.7N 16.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/1800Z 40.5N 12.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0600Z 39.0N 9.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/1800Z 37.4N 8.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0600Z 36.0N 7.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
