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| #1246103 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 26.Sep.2025) TCDAT3 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 500 AM AST Fri Sep 26 2025 Humberto has become better organized during the past several hours. Conventional satellite imagery has shown a growing central dense overcast, with hints of an eye-like feature near the center. Microwave imagery revealed a well-defined rain band wrapping around a vertically-aligned vortex, suggesting the developing of an eyewall. Satellite classifications have risen notably on this cycle and the initial intensity is set to 65 kt, closest to the TAFB Dvorak and SATCON estimates. The hurricane is drifting slowly in weak steering currents with an estimated motion of 320/3 kt. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement, showing Humberto gradually increasing speed while moving west-northward to northwestward along the southern side of a subtropical ridge during the next few days. By early next week, the hurricane is expected to turn northward around the westward periphery of the high and begin accelerating northeastward. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest official track forecast. Humberto is showing signs of steady-to-rapid intensification. The hurricane is over warm waters and seems to be experiencing less vertical wind shear than the global models are currently suggesting. Statistical rapid intensity indicators, such as DTOPS, are showing elevated probabilities of a 25 to 30 kt increase in the next 24 hours. Given these probabilities and the recent increase in initial intensity, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased, particularly in the near-term forecast, and lies above most of the guidance. By the middle of the forecast period, it is closer the the corrected consensus aid, HCCA, and still shows Humberto becoming a major hurricane this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 22.2N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 22.3N 57.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 22.6N 59.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.9N 60.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 24.5N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 26.0N 66.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 29.7N 68.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 33.7N 67.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
