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| #1246128 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 26.Sep.2025) TCDAT3 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 26 2025 Humberto continues to rapidly strengthen this morning. Infrared satellite images show a ring of deep, cold inner core convection wrapping around an eye that has recently emerged in conventional satellite imagery. Objective satellite intensity estimates are quickly climbing, and the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT estimates. A recent ASCAT-B pass over the hurricane was used to update the 34- and 50-kt wind radii of Humberto. The rapidly improving satellite structure, along with conducive environmental and oceanic conditions, suggest that significant to rapid intensification (RI) is likely to continue in the short term. In fact, the latest DTOPS guidance shows a greater than 80 percent chance of Humberto strengthening by 30 kt in the next 24 h. Thus, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast here, and the NHC intensity forecast has been raised during the first 48-72 h of the forecast period. This forecast most closely follows the regional hurricane models and the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA), on the higher end of the guidance envelope. By early next week, there are indications that deep-layer shear will increase over Humberto, and some weakening is shown beyond 72 h. Note that as Humberto gains latitude, the wind field is forecast to expand while the hurricane curves around Bermuda at days 4-5. The hurricane is moving slowly northwestward at about 4 kt. Humberto should move toward the west-northwest and northwest during the next couple of days along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the western and central Atlantic. As this ridge slides eastward, the hurricane is forecast to recurve around this feature, turning northward and then accelerating northeastward early next week. The models are in very good agreement on this sharp recurvature over the western Atlantic, and only minor adjustments were made to the latest NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 22.3N 57.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 22.5N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.9N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 23.3N 61.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 25.3N 65.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 26.8N 66.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 30.6N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 34.5N 66.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
