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| #1246159 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 26.Sep.2025) TCDAT3 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 500 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025 Satellite data indicate Humberto has strengthened into the third major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The eye of the hurricane has cleared out this afternoon and is surrounded by a ring of deep, cold convective cloud tops. Based on these developments, the latest subjective Dvorak classifications and objective intensity estimates have risen to 90-102 kt. The initial intensity of Humberto is set at 100 kt for this advisory. NOAA buoy 41044, located about 50 n mi southwest of the center, has reported falling pressures and tropical-storm-force gusts this afternoon. Humberto remains in a low shear environment over very warm sea-surface temperatures, and its well-defined inner core structure appears conducive to further intensification unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs. The latest intensity guidance favors continued strengthening, and this is reflected in the updated NHC forecast. There are differences noted in the upper-air pattern of the global models later in the period, likely related to the evolution and future path of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. But in general, increasing deep-layer shear over the hurricane should induce at least gradual weakening by early next week. Although the peak winds are forecast to decrease, the wind field is expected to expand as Humberto gains latitude and curves around Bermuda at days 3-5. The hurricane is moving slowly northwestward (295/4 kt). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion should continue through the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest later this weekend with a gradual increase in forward speed as a subtropical ridge slides eastward over the central Atlantic. A slight southward adjustment was made to the near-term NHC track forecast based on today`s trends, but otherwise this portion of the forecast is similar to the previous one. Later in the period, the models are fairly consistent on a sharp recurvature of the hurricane between the ridge and an upper trough digging over the northwestern Atlantic, though there are larger along-track speed differences noted. This part of the forecast generally lies between the multi-model consensus aids and the Google DeepMind solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 22.3N 58.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 22.4N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.8N 60.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 23.4N 62.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 24.6N 64.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 26.0N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 31.7N 68.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
