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| #1246197 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 27.Sep.2025) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 ...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 75.8W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.8 West. The disturbance has moved little during the past few hours. However, it is expected to start moving northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) later this morning. A north- northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight. Gradual strengthening is forecast thereafter, with the system becoming a tropical storm by early Sunday, and a hurricane by late Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days... high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight or early Sunday and are possible in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall amounts through Monday morning. Eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible. Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches are expected. Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba: 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall are expected. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
