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| #1246248 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 27.Sep.2025) TCDAT3 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025 Since the last advisory, Humberto`s eye has once again become better defined and recent WSF-M microwave imagery at 1001 UTC did not indicate the presence of concentric eyewalls. Together, these data suggest Humberto completed its eyewall replacement cycle. Recent objective and subjective intensity estimates range from near 120 kt to just below 130 kt, so the initial intensity remains 125 kt. With the previous eyewall cycle completing, Humberto may resume strengthening today, and this is still indicated in the official forecast. Fluctuations in intensity, up or down, will be possible with with any additional eyewall replacement cycles, and the predictability of the specific timing of such events is quite low, even as the SHIPS secondary eyewall prediction indicates a 2 in 3 chance that another one will occur in the next two days. With the environment otherwise expected to be favorable for strengthening, the NHC forecast continues to show strengthening and maintains Humberto at or above its current strength through the weekend. Next week, Humberto should begin to interact with a mid-latitude trough and undergo a transformation resulting in a significant expansion of its surface wind field and eventual extratropical transition. While Humberto`s peak winds should decrease as a result, the spread of its impacts will likely increase as the cyclone grows in size. The hurricane has accelerated a little, with a forward speed now near 7 kt. Humberto will move around the subtropical ridge for the next few days and then accelerate northeastward as it interacts with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, but with a slightly faster forward speed. The NHC forecast remains closest to a blend of the Google DeepMind and NOAA AIGEFS ensemble means, and the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 22.7N 60.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 23.1N 61.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 24.1N 63.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 25.5N 65.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 27.1N 66.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 67.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 31.3N 68.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 35.4N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 40.8N 50.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
