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| #1246402 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 28.Sep.2025) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 77.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador * Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand Bahama Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Florida from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located by Air Force reconnaissance data near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster motion to the north is expected later today and continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by the middle part of this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central Bahamas and are expected in the northwestern Bahamas later this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the east coast of Florida on Monday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches across eastern Cuba and 6 to 12 inches across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 7 inches are expected into Wednesday morning across portions of the coastal Carolinas. This rainfall could result in flash, urban, and isolated, minor river flooding. Changes in the forecast track could result in further adjustments to these rainfall totals. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles... Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina...1 to 2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin |
