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| #1246456 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 28.Sep.2025) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 ...IMELDA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 77.1W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador * Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand Bahama Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 77.1 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected to continue through Monday. On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Monday and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by the middle part of this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the central and northwestern Bahamas and should continue through Monday morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across eastern Cuba and 4 to 8 inches across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches are expected through Tuesday across coastal South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles... Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina...1 to 2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
