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| #1246457 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 28.Sep.2025) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Imelda's cloud pattern has shown little change since earlier today. There is a prominent band of deep convection over the eastern portion of the circulation. Some deep convection is developing near/over the estimated center position. Flight-level winds observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm indicate that the maximum winds remain near 35 kt, although the recent increase of central convection suggests some strengthening may soon occur. Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters show that the motion has been mainly northward with the initial motion estimate remaining about 360/8 kt. Imelda should continue this generally northward track through tomorrow while moving on the western side of a mid-level ridge. Then, a trough over the southeastern U.S. is expected to cause the cyclone to turn sharply east-northeastward. This track should keep the center of Imelda offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Later in the forecast period, the system should move mainly east-northeastward over the subtropical Atlantic, and pass near Bermuda in several days. The official track forecast is similar to the one from the previous advisory, and close to the model consensus. Imelda is expected to remain in an environment of moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear for the next few days. The system will be moving over warm ocean waters of around 29 deg C and within a fairly moist mid-level air mass. Given the mainly conducive environmental conditions, the cyclone is likely to strengthen into a hurricane within the next 1-2 days, with additional intensification likely thereafter. The official intensity forecast is at the higher end of the model guidance. By the end of the forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest the cloud pattern of an extratropical cyclone, and the official forecast shows extratropical transition around that time. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Imelda is expected to continue to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas through Monday. 2. Rainfall associated with Imelda will continue to impact eastern Cuba and the Bahamas through Tuesday, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas could cause isolated flash and urban flooding through Tuesday. 3. The risk of significant wind impacts along the southeastern United States coast is decreasing, but interests in that area should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates. 4. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along the east coast of Florida and the Georgia coast through Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward along much of the east coast of the United States early this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 25.0N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 26.3N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 27.9N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 28.8N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 29.4N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 30.2N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 31.2N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 33.4N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 36.5N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
