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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1246494 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 29.Sep.2025)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC MON SEP 29 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.7N 77.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.1N 76.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 28.9N 75.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 29.9N 72.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.1N 68.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 130SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.4N 63.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 45SE 55SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...280NE 250SE 160SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 35.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...360NE 200SE 180SW 300NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 39.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE 180SW 240NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 77.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE