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| #1246609 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 30.Sep.2025) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 ...IMELDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 77.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 77.2 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today followed by a turn toward the east-northeast at a faster forward speed by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of the system should move away from the northwestern Bahamas overnight and away from the southeastern United States today. The center should approach Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4 inches are expected through tonight across coastal sections of southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban flooding. As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles... Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina...1 to 2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
