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| #1246625 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 30.Sep.2025) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 ...IMELDA LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE NEAR BERMUDA LATE ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 76.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 755 MI...1210 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Hurricane Warning could be required later today for Bermuda. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 76.8 West. Imelda is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a turn towards the east- northeast at a faster forward speed by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of the system should move away from the Bahamas today and quickly be approaching Bermuda late on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Imelda should become a hurricane later today, with further strengthening anticipated on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4 inches are expected through tonight across coastal sections of southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban flooding. As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles... Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina...1 to 2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
