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| #1246654 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 30.Sep.2025) TCDAT3 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 30 2025 Humberto is quickly decoupling. Strong westerly vertical wind shear has exposed the low-level circulation, with a curved band of deep convection still present in the northeastern quadrant. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have just completed their final mission into Humberto, finding peak flight-level winds of 77 kt and a rising central minimum pressure. The initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 70 kt. The hurricane is moving at an estimated 340/16 kt. Humberto is expect to turn northward and north-northeastward later today, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday with an increase in forward motion as the hurricane merges with a large mid- to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic. The latest official track forecast has shifted slightly to the west, largely due to the current north-northwest motion. Humberto should gradually weaken while it transitions into a strong extratropical cyclone. Global models suggest this transition will occur sooner than previously expected, and the official forecast now shows Humberto as an extratropical cyclone by Wednesday. By Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to elongate along a frontal boundary extending southwestward toward Imelda and lose its closed circulation. The hurricane is producing a large area of hazardous marine conditions over the western and central Atlantic, where life-threatening rip currents are expected to affect beaches along the eastern seaboard through the week. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of the United States through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 33.0N 69.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 34.8N 69.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 36.2N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 37.0N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
