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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1246656 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 30.Sep.2025)
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 76.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 100SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 76.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 29.8N 74.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 31.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 34.3N 60.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 200SW 290NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.7N 53.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 230SE 200SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 39.3N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 43.6N 46.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 50.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 250SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH