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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1246688 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 30.Sep.2025)
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 75.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 75.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 30.0N 73.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.2N 68.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.8N 63.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 200SW 290NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.0N 51.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 230SE 200SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 40.4N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 45.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 52.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 250SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 75.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH