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| #1246691 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 30.Sep.2025) TCDAT3 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 500 PM AST Tue Sep 30 2025 Deep convection has persisted in the northeast quadrant through the day and is now partially obscuring the low-level circulation. An afternoon AMSR2 microwave satellite pass showed curved band wrapping around eastern semicircle of the hurricane. Given the slightly improved satellite presentation and the earlier aircraft data, the initial intensity remains at 70 kt. The wind radii have been updated based on a couple scatterometer passes from 1339 and 1500 UTC. Humberto has turned northward and is moving an estimated 15 kt as the hurricane nears the mid-latitude trough to its north. Later today, the cyclone is expected to turn northeast and on Wednesday to the east-northeast in the westerly flow. Only minor updates have made to the latest NHC track forecast, which lies on the leading edge of the track guidance envelope. Model guidance suggests Humberto should gradually weaken while it merges with the mid- to upper-level trough during the next day or so. Humberto`s dissipation has once again been moved up based on recent model trends, now at 36 h. While the official intensity forecast shows Humberto becoming an extratropical cyclone on Wednesday, the European model is showing the potential that it could retain deep organized convection up until the cyclone becomes elongated and loses its closed surface circulation. The hurricane is producing a large area of hazardous marine conditions over the western and central Atlantic, where life-threatening rip currents are expected to affect beaches throughout the region through the week. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of the United States through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 34.0N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 35.3N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 36.1N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
