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Unfavorable conditions for development in Gulf but a weak low may form near Florida with 10% odds, likely just rain. Tropical Atlantic to watch later this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 357 (Milton) , Major: 357 (Milton) Florida - Any: 357 (Milton) Major: 357 (Milton)
PTC Imelda
ADV#24 11:00 am EDT
33.2N 59.5W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 980mb
Moving:
Ene at 29 mph
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#1246755 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 01.Oct.2025)
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 72.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 330SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 72.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 73.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.1N 69.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 140SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.2N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 180SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.4N 58.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 40SE 70SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.7N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 39.7N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 220SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 44.8N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 49.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 72.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE