|
Show Selection: |
| #1246757 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 01.Oct.2025) TCDAT3 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 500 AM AST Wed Oct 01 2025 GOES-19 satellite images indicate that the convective structure of Humberto has started to deteriorate over the past few hours, with the convection outrunning the low-level center towards the east-northeast. If this trend continues, it won`t take much longer for Humberto`s center to be exposed. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers range from 55-77 kt, while recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have been ranging a bit lower from 53-63 kt. Earlier ASCAT data had 61-kt retrievals. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated towards the northeast, or 055/12 kt. An acceleration towards the east-northeast is expected today within the mid-latitude westerlies. A longwave mid-latitude trough located to the north of Humberto is quickly dropping southward and is starting to impinge upon the hurricane`s circulation. The resulting interaction is causing a strengthening frontal boundary to extend east-northeastward from close to the cyclone center. Given recent satellite trends as well as the solutions depicted by the latest GFS and ECMWF models, it appears likely that Humberto will become fully frontal, and thus extratropical, later this morning. After that, the global and regional models agree that the cyclone should quickly become elongated along the frontal boundary and dissipate this evening. Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda are producing a large area of hazardous marine conditions over the western and central Atlantic, where life-threatening rip currents are expected to continue affecting beaches throughout the region through the week. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous marine conditions, including high surf and life-threatening rip currents, will continue to affect beaches of the northern Caribbean, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of the United States during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 35.8N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 36.4N 64.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen |
