|
Show Selection: |
| #1246805 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 01.Oct.2025) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 01 2025 ...IMELDA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DAMAGING WAVES, AND FLASH FLOODING TO BERMUDA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 69.2W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 69.2 West. Imelda is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to continue through late Thursday. A turn toward the northeast is forecast on Friday and into the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane will be near Bermuda tonight and move away from the island by Thursday afternoon. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Imelda passes close to Bermuda tonight. Imelda is then expected to become an extratropical low on Thursday, with gradual weakening forecast thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Bermuda tonight and early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions likely by this afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Across Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) of rainfall are expected from later today into Thursday, which could lead to flash flooding. STORM SURGE: In Bermuda, a dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
