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| #1247539 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 07.Oct.2025) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 Jerry continues to produce bands of deep convection around the center, with the strongest winds likely still occurring on the north and east sides of the circulation. The storm remain far from land, roughly 900 miles east of the Windward Islands. All of the satellite intensity estimates have increased, and most of them are around 45 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is increased to that value. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow. Jerry continues to move quickly westward at about 20 kt on the south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. The models insist that a turn to the west-northwest should occur soon with a gradual reduction in forward speed expected over the next couple of days as the storm nears the southwestern side of the ridge. This motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. The best-performing models show the core of Jerry missing the northern Leeward Islands, however, there are some GFS, ECMWF, and Google Deep Mind ensemble members that pass very near or over the islands. Therefore, interests there and in the Virgin Islands should monitor the system's progress as details in the forward speed of the storm and strength of the ridge will be the main factors determining how close Jerry gets to the islands. By the weekend, a turn to the north is forecast as the ridge weakens and shifts eastward due to a large-scale trough amplifying over the western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast remains on the fast side of the guidance through 72 hours, as models often have a slow bias in the tropical Atlantic. This prediction is slightly left of the previous one, and in best agreement with HCCA model. The storm is forecast to continue to strengthen during the next couple of days as it remains in conducive environmental conditions of light winds aloft, abundant moisture, and over warm waters. Given the favorable conditions, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model show that there is about 20 percent chance of rapid intensification occurring during the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show Jerry becoming a hurricane in a day or so, with additional intensification expected after that. After the system passes by the islands, most of the models show some increase in shear, which should end the strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and in general agreement with HCCA and IVCN. Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward Islands. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to strength and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches have been issued. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 12.0N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 12.8N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.5N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 25.8N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
