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| #1247550 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 07.Oct.2025) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 800 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 ...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 47.5W ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, amd Montserrat. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 47.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, where Tropical Storm Watches have been issued. RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_al5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
