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| #1247866 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 10.Oct.2025) TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025 900 AM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025 Karen remains embedded within a large upper-level low pressure system over the north Atlantic. Satellite images show the compact storm is still producing some moderate convection around its center, primarily over the eastern part of the circulation. Based on the ST2.5/35-40 kt classification from TAFB and earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The storm is moving northeastward (045/8 kt), and it is expected to accelerate northeastward during the next 12-24 h within the flow ahead of an advancing deep-layer trough from the west. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one. Despite being located over sub-20 deg C SSTs, very cold air aloft may continue to provide enough instability for Karen to maintain some organized convection today. However, environmental and oceanic conditions will become increasingly hostile going forward, and the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the system devoid of convection by early Saturday. Shortly thereafter, Karen is forecast to open up into a trough and become absorbed by an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 45.3N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 46.8N 30.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 49.4N 28.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
