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| #1247893 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 10.Oct.2025) TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112025 300 PM GMT Fri Oct 10 2025 There has been little change to Karen`s structure or intensity since the previous advisory. A curved band of convection is located around the northwestern portion of the cyclone and an 1110 UTC ASCAT pass detected peak winds of 38 kt. Therefore, the intensity will remain 40 kt for this advisory, which is also in line with the latest TAFB classification of ST2.5. The storm is moving northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed of 11 kt. Karen`s should turn north-northeast and continue to accelerate ahead of a deep layer trough during the next 12 to 24 hours. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance and is essentially an update of the previous official forecast. Karen is forecast to move over even cooler waters during the next 12-24 hours and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicated that the convection is likely to wane later today and tonight. Therefore, some weakening is indicated and the system should become post-tropical in 12 hours, if not sooner. Shortly thereafter, Karen is forecast to open up into a trough and become absorbed by an approaching frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 46.3N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 47.9N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 11/1200Z 51.4N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
