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| #1248412 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 14.Oct.2025) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 500 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 Lorenzo is really struggling over the tropical Atlantic. The system is now only producing a few clusters of deep convection as dry air continues to entrain into the circulation. Based on the degraded satellite appearance and intensity estimates, the initial wind speed is lowered to 35 kt. Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches from the west. The faster northeastward motion will likely continue until the system dissipates in a few days. Dry air and moderate to strong shear should continue to affect Lorenzo during the next several days. These conditions should cause the system to continue to degrade, and Lorenzo is now forecast to dissipate by day 3. In fact, most of the models show Lorenzo opening into a trough even sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.7N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 20.5N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 23.0N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 25.6N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 28.3N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 29.8N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
